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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."